The retired American diplomat and academic expert on Turkish affairs, Edward Stafford, discussed in detail the moves of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Libya, and his current as well as future goals of his military intervention in the country to support the Government of National Accord (GNA).
Stafford, who was a guest on the USL program on 218News, said Tuesday that Erdogan was constantly creating a crisis situation from which he would benefit as much as he could to escape from consequences, after which he often backed off a little, adding that he was interfering in Libya for his own purposes.
NATO’s Stance
Stafford added that Erdogan will support the United Nations process and support the arms embargo on Libya as long as he believes that this is in his interest, as he insists that Turkey has outstanding rights in the eastern Mediterranean because of its Mediterranean coast, and stressed the need not to ignore what Turkey is doing in the region, and to deal with it.
Regarding Turkey’s relationship with NATO, Stafford said that Erdogan, since assuming the post of prime minister in 2003, has sought to transfer Turkey to be an outstanding member in NATO, and he is counting that many NATO countries realize that Turkey’s presence in the alliance is beneficial, while NATO’s Secretary General understands that the problem is not Turkey per se, but Erdogan’s personal ambitions.
Turkey’s Disruptive Role
The retired American diplomat, Edward Stafford, explained that if the parties in Libya agree to cancel the maritime agreement with Turkey, Erdogan will find some way to thwart the agreement, pointing out that there are Turks in Libya who exert a great deal of influence on the GNA.
“It is unlikely that Turkey will play a positive role in negotiations between the Libyans, and will play a negative or destructive role,” he said, adding that Libya’s situation is incredibly complex with the presence of European Union members on opposite sides of the issue.
Erdogan and Manipulation of Muslims
Stafford talked about Erdogan’s relationship with the Islamists, stressing that Erdogan’s mercenaries and ISIS, whom he sends to Libya, are a source of great concern, explaining that Erdogan does not want Islamic militants on his borders, so he sent them to Libya in the hope of killing them at the hands of “Wagner” mercenaries.
He pointed out that Erdogan’s long-term strategy is to restore Islam to Turkish political life and abolish the principle of separating religion from the state, as one of his intentions is to revive the Ottoman Empire, while he also believes that the Ottoman Empire was a means to spread Islam, either through persuasion or conquest.
Edward Stafford said that Erdogan presents himself as a kind of leader for Muslims and not only Turkey, and his strategy is based on creating crises so that Turkey appears as the prominent defender of the rights and privileges of Muslims around the world, explaining that the Muslim Brotherhood for Erdogan is not a bad organization, and that he was very happy when Mohammed Morsi took power in Egypt and is unhappy with Al-Sisi taking office.
Scenario after US Elections
The expert on Turkish affairs stated that Erdogan is very patient, very smart and is changing his tactics to fit the existing situation, and he believes that Western powers are hindering Turkey from occupying its decent place in the world.
Stafford expressed his belief that Erdogan “is manipulating Trump, but he finds it difficult in Libya with Putin, who is more cruel and more skillful than him in strategic terms.”
He added that US policy will change if Biden wins the elections, as the latter will tend to the idea of American intervention in the world, and may impose sanctions on Turkey in the S-400 case, and for removing Turkey from the F-35 program.
Stafford pointed out that the move of the US ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland, is not sufficient, and the Libyan situation requires greater US action, but the problem is that many in the United States see Libya as the problem of the European Union, and it is the one who solves this issue.
The Role of the United Nations
On the role of the United Nations in Libya, Edward Stafford indicated that Washington recognizes one Libyan side, but it is already trying to be an honest mediator between the factions, stressing that the real hope for Libya is that we have an honest mediator, expressing his hope that the ceasefire will endure and lead to some purposeful negotiations.
He stressed the need for the United States to use its good offices to support the efforts of the United Nations to reach a settlement in Libya, but he said, “There will be no opportunity to increase American support for the efforts of the United Nations until after the end of the elections.”
He added: “It is not enough for the superpower to be a neutral party in the Libyan conflict. Libya is closer to being a European problem, but it is certainly an American problem as well, and the United States should be concerned about the impact of the Libya problem on the region as a whole. The useful role that the United States can play is getting the Europeans to agree on a unified policy towards the Libyan issue.”
