The Institute for Security Studies, which works to build knowledge and skills that secure the future of Africa, published an analytical article in which it inquired about the possibility of continuing the ceasefire signed in Libya until the election date of next December.
The author of the article, Peter Fabricius, believes that hopes of ending the decade-long conflict are now higher than they have been for a long time. The ceasefire has been in effect since last October, oil production has resumed, and the participants of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum agreed to hold elections on December 24.
This week, he completed the process of selecting a unified transitional government to lead the country until then, and continues, “But despite these positive signs, there are also many alarm bells, and the ceasefire can be interpreted as a legal reflection of an actual military stalemate on the ground, but It also transforms global dynamics between external powers that were to a large extent the decision-makers in the war.
Fabricius asserts in his article that Libya is not fundamentally a proxy war between external players only, although they have exaggerated it, since if the agents agreed in the end to collect their equipment and soldiers and leave, the main motives for the conflict will remain, as the problem of militias and their political allies looms large.
According to the signed agreements, the militias are supposed to be dismantled and integrated into the official defense force, and he adds, “this has not happened yet, and we do not expect it to happen soon because the political agreement inevitably means the militias losing power, which have a symbiotic and win-win relationship with the political factions and the various associated with it, including the opponents within the Government of National Accord.
