LibyaPolitics

What are the moves of 5+5 JMC? A read into movements in west Libya

Complicated tracks and cautious steps in which the achievement has been frozen and the performance of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, which was formed in accordance with the policy of the tracks, approved by the Berlin Conference on Libya held on January 19, 2020, within the framework of a vision aimed at preserving the ceasefire signed in Geneva in October 2020, in conjunction with a political and economic path to end the crisis in the country.

The Commission that choose the city for Sirte as its permanent headquarters, in reference to the peculiarity of the region in the center of the country and is one of the axes of the cease-fire, to begin its work with agendas, foremost of which is maintaining calm, evacuating foreign forces and mercenaries, and restructuring the armed forces in preparation for their unification, in addition to supporting the political track by providing positive atmospheres and enhancing the state of trust between the internal parties.

TheCommission began its heavy tasks with intensive meetings that it held inside and outside the country, but it often clashed with the technical nature, the absence of obligation or the strength to enforce its vision on the ground, in addition to the reference of its members.

It was not public, but it was very clear every time it approached the thorny issues, to return to square one, motivated by the desire to preserve the gains of the ceasefire and to move away from creating a state of tension and undermining confidence with its popular bases and the parties that named it.

A challenge in which the committee tried to maintain impartiality, which seems illogical compared to the tasks entrusted to it, to take a step back in the face of any measure that provokes discontent or rejection, which was evident after the committee’s call for a statement of the subordination of some security and military agencies in the capital, Tripoli, which sparked a wave a storm of criticism at the time, prompted some members of the committee to issue personal statements disavowing the decision, in addition to the questions that accompanied the committee’s call for the United Nations to pressure the political parties to push the political path, to be accused of exceeding the terms of reference and siding with a particular political party.

Files reflecting roots of  crisis in Libya

The file of unifying the military institution, although it appears to be a file of a technical nature, is closely related to the political track, and constitutes one of the determinants of the Libyan crisis, as the MilitaryCommission distanced itself from presenting any perception related to the thorny file, and it remained silent in the face of military moves the strategy and efficacy in dealing with the file of the exit of foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya were absent, despite the positive atmosphere at the regional and international levels supporting their exit, and the widening circle of international pressure.

Intense meetings held by theCommission in neighboring countries, and it also visited the capitals of influence in the Libyan crisis and returned empty-handed with diplomatic promises to deal positively with the desire of the Libyans for the exit of foreign forces, despite its announcement of a plan with a specific timetable that ends this presence, which was not achieved in the face of the keenness of the actors on the ground in not losing their international alliances, and the desire of the international parties themselves to maintain military balances that achieve a state of fragile stability that provides the minimum protection for interests and the strengthening of influence.

A failure that reinforced questions about the role of the Commission, which is credited with a limited balance of achievements, did not exceed the opening of the coastal road linking the East and West, and the holding of a number of international meetings that came in a positive political climate, which resulted in the exit of a limited number of mercenaries in diplomatic initiatives, in exchange for strengthening the presence of Turkish and Russian military, whose presence in international reports has been growing in the country, which has turned into a starting point and an anchor serving the expansion plans of these countries, has gone beyond the Libyan borders to areas of conflict and influence in the African Sahel countries.

But why did the members of the Military Committee from the Western Region intensify their movements recently?

Officially, the meeting came to discuss the security and military situation in the western region, and ways to intensify efforts in order to organize the work of all military units and sectors in Tripoli and the western region, for the same team to hold a meeting with UN advisor Stephanie Williams, Wednesday, to discuss maintaining calm, security and stability across the country.

The meetings come at a time of heightened political tension and field mobilization on the ground in the western region and the capital, Tripoli, against the backdrop of the determination of the Prime Minister of the Libyan government headed by Bashagha, who has recently won the confidence of Parliament, to exercise its duties from Tripoli amid a strict rejection and threat of the use of force by the Dabaiba government, which clung to its position saying he wanted to hand over power to an elected government, which means raising the possibility of a return to armed conflict that might return the country to square one amid a stalemate in the political file that fluctuates between the proposal of the United Nations mission supported by the five countries 2 + 3, and the road map of the House of Representatives, which is dominated by ambiguity and the absence of mechanisms.

A crisis situation prompted the move of the Military Commission, some of whose members have weight and influence on the actors on the ground, to contribute to maintaining calm and banishing the specter of war fueled by armed formations, betting on the continuation of their gains and current alliances, but the Commission, which has a positive presence in international discussions as one of the outcomes of the international consensus in Berlin has practically no binding power other than that of the literary force that characterizes its harmonious artistic work, which begs the need for an active regional role pressing on the local armed formations to discourage them from any adventure with uncalculated results.

The duality of the work of the Commission, with its western and eastern wings, raises in itself the question of the absence of a serious position and a declared road map for the committee, through which the duplicity of the military institution is resolved and practical steps taken to end the division, driven by the declared international desire to push the country towards stability and end the transitional stages that fed the parties to the conflict who want to reinstate themselves with each political initiative.

Major challenges facing the Joint Military Commission, whose greatest concern is the return of armed fighting in the country, which implies a catastrophic failure in its work that is based on the field calm, prompting a reassessment of the Libyan situation according to the different map of alliances and the change in the polarization parties, as any potential military confrontation as yesterday’s opponents may turn into allies, and accordingly, yesterday’s allies may turn into opponents, which was evident in the military meetings that recently gathered Al-Haddad and Al-Nadori and those that included military leaders and princes of battalions from both sides in the Shwerf region that  is one of the points of military contact in the south, although the Military Commission blessed them, but it was not a party to them and was subject to repositioning and renewal of alliances, which was then culminated in political understandings that led to the formation of the Libyan government.

Changing the military roadmap may push the Joint Military Commission to redraw its strategies and arrange its priorities, especially since the recent field and political alliances on the ground enjoy Turkish-Egyptian approval, in light of a remarkable diplomatic rapprochement between the two countries that were, until recently, forming opposite and parallel poles in the Libyan file. Is the Commission trying to maintain calm, or has the matter reached a point of tension that is not extinguished by intense meetings?

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