To let Russia have the lead in Libya is an idea that goes at odds with the US National Security strategies and with the Trump administration as well as with all other US national departments, thus Trump was pushed into changing his strategy in Libya.
Ben Fishman is a former director for North Africa at the National Security Council said in an opinion article on Bloomberg that Libya is a test case for these strategies. If Russia tilts the war in Haftar’s favor, it will strip the West of influence in Libya either by ensuring pervasive instability or ending hopes of a peaceful political transition.
“To allay doubts of a renewed commitment to Libya, first the White House needs to reiterate the Nov. 14 US statement – in which it condemned the war in Tripoli – and clarify its response to Russia’s interference; the administration should shed more light on Russia’s Wagner Group actions in Libya, to the extent that it can without compromising intelligence sources.” Fishman said.
Second, Fishman said, the US should threaten to sanction all groups involved in providing arms to Libya, including arms suppliers, shipping companies and insurers.
“Finally, the US must vigorously back the Berlin Conference intended to unite international support for a ceasefire and reconvene a Libyan political dialogue.” He added.
Disclosing Russian influence in Libya and trying to isolate it could be the best way to limit that influence in North Africa and that is well known to the Trump administration as the goal is to bring benefits to and help the interests of the US strategies, Fishman indicated.
