US foreign policy expert Gregory Aftandilian told 218News that at the moment, the only thing that could lead to a real ceasefire is a serious outbreak of the Coronavirus in Libya and a significant increase in the number of casualties.
The American expert said that Turkish mercenaries and military personnel sent by Turkish President Recep Erdogan transmit the Coronavirus to Libya, adding that Corunavirus, in a very strange way, can help in achieving a ceasefire and in a political and reconciliation process, saying that this virus is the only thing that will unite Libyans and push them to fight the pandemic regardless of their political affiliation or ideology.
Erdogan does not respect Libyans
Speaking on the USL Program on 218News, he pointed out that Erdogan, who has become a major player in the Libyan war, has provided since January, drones and extremist Syrian fighters to the Government of National Accord.
He added: “Erdogan does not respect the lives of Libyans even amid the outbreak of the Coronavirus. His foreign policy is military and aggressive and he wants to implement the new Ottoman foreign policy in Libya.”
Gregory said that Turkey’s foreign policy is based on support for Islamic groups in various parts of the Arab world, noting that the world does not accept the idea of reviving the Ottoman Empire at a time when Erdogan believes that Turkey can restore its past as a dominant player in the Middle East.
Speaking about Arab and European positions on Ankara’s foreign policies, he made it clear that Egypt is angry with Turkey because of the Muslim Brotherhood issue and the issue of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, while some European countries such as Greece and Cyprus consider Turkey to be a threat to them.
ISIS might drag Washington into Libya
The political expert stressed that the only thing that could change American policy toward Libya is the return of ISIS in Libya, saying that Libya is not among the most important priorities of US foreign policy under the current administration of President Donald Trump.
He pointed out that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo believes that Libya has a very complex situation, and that the chances of the United States becoming involved in Libya are not very high, given the fact that the United States sees Libya as a European and international problem in the first place.
Tension in US-Turkish relations
The American expert revealed that Turkey’s relations with the United States are not at their best, saying some elements within the US government see the Muslim Brotherhood’s alliance with the Government of National Accord in Tripoli as a danger.
“Turkey has given sanctuary to Muslim Brotherhood activists throughout the region, and Erdogan sees the Muslim Brotherhood as part of his foreign policy. He has many critics in Turkey who see his aggressive policies in the Arab world as counterproductive.” He said.
Regarding his ambitions in Libya, Gregory saw that the Turkish President aspires to economic relations with Libya if he sees that the GNA will emerge victorious from the war in Tripoli, stressing that he will not give up his declared goal of complete control over Libya unless he is subjected to a very massive defeat.
Erdogan: A president with terrorist arms
Gregory said that the Turkish president declared his opposition to terrorist groups, but he helped them and used them as mercenaries in Libya, believing that his country would be safer if these mercenaries and terrorists were fighting in another country instead of being in or near Turkey.
“Erdogan believes that his foreign policy will continue regardless of opposition from the United States or Western European countries. But at the same time, Europe cannot stand up to Erdogan without Washington.” He added.
He believed that the Turkish intervention in Libya prolonged the war and made reconciliation, the ceasefire and the implementation of a real arms embargo difficult to achieve, saying that the role of the European Operation IRINI to stop sending weapons to Libya at sea will not stop arms supplies from air and land borders.
Stephanie Williams entered the Libyan minefield
Turning to the role of the United Nations Mission in Libya, the American expert said that the resignation of Ghassan Salame indicates his frustration, citing the difficulty of the situation in Libya.
“Ghassan Salame did his best to try to impose a real arms embargo and a ceasefire, but he failed. I’m not sure Stephanie Williams will succeed after Salame failed as things don’t look very promising at this point.”
He explained that the appointment of Stephanie Williams as the Head of the UN mission in Libya does not motivate her as an American, considering that what Stephanie and US Ambassador Richard Norland are doing to revitalize US policy in Libya is not enough.
The American foreign policy expert concluded his speech by saying that the United Nations is extremely frustrated that it couldn’t stop the fighting and that the humanitarian situation in Libya is getting worse every day.
