The US-based “Jamestown Foundation” for strategic studies and research published a detailed report in which it addressed the future of armed formations affiliated with the Government of National Accord, and the re-emergence of groups, which could limit the value of the GNA’s military advances on the ground.
The report indicates the difference in ideological orientations and loyalties among these formations, in addition to the effect of the increasing presence of foreign fighters on the balance between them, as the demographic change resulting from the influx of Syrian mercenaries raised fears of a major division in the GNA camp.
The American center suggested that the coming months will witness an escalation in the intensity of the differences among the armed formations, fueled by the competition for influence and money.
With rallying around the potential battle of Sirte, Turkey and the Government of National Accord prefer to resort to foreign mercenaries to reduce their dependence on local armed formations that are looking to benefit from any future political settlement.
Regarding the expected reaction from the armed formations, the Jamestown Center said that they may express their dissatisfaction by defecting from the Government of National Accord and joining the Libyan National Army or any other actors, as they may pour their efforts into criminal operations within the areas under the control of GNA.
This potential instability obliges the GNA to extend its control over these armed formations or to disarm them, and while the United States has intensified its calls for security sector reform and disarmament, the Jamestown Center says that the GNA has not shown any real desire to achieve those reforms so far.
Delaying security sector reform until GNA takes control of Sirte will be extremely dangerous, as controlling the city will give the GNA access to large oil revenues, which could lead to armed formations rebelling in order to obtain profits.
