“Al-Bilad” program on 218News discussed Monday the reasons for the sudden Turkish visit to Tripoli, and whether there will be understandings among the invitees to the Berlin 2 conference, in addition to questions about the obstacles to the upcoming elections.
Public Budget
The writer and political researcher, Mohammad El-Jarih, referred to what the former UN envoy, Ghassan Salame, said in his intervention regarding the nature of the conflict in Libya, which is a struggle for power and wealth, saying what is happening regarding the budget issue; is in the context of this conflict.
For Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dabaiba; he presented a budget proposal that is the largest in the history of Libya, according to some descriptions. This huge budget represents strength if the Prime Minister is able to obtain it without the required controls, which the House of Representatives referred to in its previous sessions.
El-Jarih stressed that he is not against giving the government the budget as much as he is interested in the government’s response to all the questions and reservations submitted by members of the House of Representatives, especially with regard to the item on development and emergency.
El-Jarih explained that the House of Representatives is part of what is happening in the country, therefore; why does the prime minister give them a chance to bargain by offering this huge budget?
Regarding the question of the “Al-Bilad” program: In the event that the general budget is not approved by the House of Representatives; what are the alternatives to the prime minister? El-Jarih replied: “According to the law; he can use the equation “1/12”, to continue spending on budget requirements, also in light of the current state of controversy over the budget; perhaps we are heading to reproduce the division, and therefore the head of government can declare that he is not subject to the authority of the divided parliament, and may enter into certain understandings with some members of the House of Representatives who are loyal to him, the High Council of State and the Central Bank of Libya to start spending the budget as he pleases. In return, this may lead to a state of division and closure of the oil ports again; thus, we enter into a state of conflict worse than before.
Security Deterioration
El-Jarih explained that the obstructionists in the current period are the ones who propose solutions that lead to the postponement of the elections.
He stressed that the road map is a complete agreement, and this agreement resulted in the Interim National Unity Government, and that any breach of this agreement for any reason opens the door for several parties to reject this agreement, and to start again in dialogues under the auspices of the United Nations.
“The National Unity Government has, in effect, begun a campaign at the international level to convince the international parties supporting the elections that it will be difficult to hold them on the agreed date, and here falls a great responsibility on the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Najla Al-Mangoush, to act against this postponement.”
“De facto forces rejecting the process of change; possessing power, money, authority and armed groups, and instead of focusing on important files such as the national reconciliation file and the security file; because of their important role in preparing the environment for holding the upcoming elections; we are seeing a deterioration in security, east and west.” El-Jarih added.
On the other hand, El-Jarih continues: “In order for there to be an accurate reading of what happened in the city of Sabha from a bombing operation that was claimed by ISIS, this bombing comes a few days after the great military parade organized by the General Command in Benina, and it is assumed that the General Command of the army, led by Khalifa Haftar, is the one who controls the southern region; therefore, they have the task of securing this region and preventing such violations.
More importantly, this bombing comes two weeks before the second Berlin conference, and three weeks before the general program set by the High Elections Authority. Hence, we can include ISIS in the list of obstructions in Libya, especially since the return of stability in Libya.
Recent urkish Visit
The writer and political researcher believes that this visit to the western region comes before the Berlin conference, which Turkey is supposed to attend, and also that the visit is a provocative message from the Turks to the Libyan parties and the gathering in Berlin.
“Saying that they are not foreign powers, but rather powers that exist according to an agreement signed by Fayez al-Sarraj, and they cannot be equated with any other foreign party on the ground, then go to Berlin from a position of strength that enables them to negotiate a number of Libyan files.” He added.
According to El-Jarih, the call of the National Unity Government and the Presidential Council for the “Berlin 2” conference is a kind of celebration of the formation of a unified government in Libya, and an attempt to clarify the government’s responsibilities before the international community, especially with regard to the issue of elections, the exit of mercenaries, and the unification of the military institution.
He continues: “There are no guarantees that the Berlin conference will come up with important resolutions regarding the current circumstances, but there may be consensus among those invited to the Berlin conference, and it is certain that there are countries opposed to holding elections on December 24. I expect that, due to the current state of division; we will not come out with good understandings, unless the United States can create a consensus formula among supporters and opponents of the upcoming elections.”
Libyan Political Dialogue Forum
El-Jarih believes that the UN envoy, Jan Kubis, is very disappointed, as when he began his mission in Libya; he was expected to have the ability to persuade the Parliament and the High Council of State to carry out their tasks in implementing the political agreement and the road map, but it is clear that he will go to the “Berlin 2” conference with a message of disappointment with these institutions, and that he will call for the political dialogue forum to adopt the constitutional rule, and then pass it to the High National Elections Commission to start preparing for the upcoming elections, and to place obstructing institutions within fait accompli.
